RV sales slowing way down

[neighbormike]

The problem where i live is the houses are bringing huge amounts....Yes you can make a huge profit....But if you have to stay in the same area...Your huge profit will be going on your next purchase....So it will basically be a wash.
150-250K homes dont exsist.
350K and up homes are for sale everywhere.
I have a friend in the business and they are struggling for listings in medium price range.
Times sure have changed....20yrs ago a 100K got you a decent home.
Now a 100K gets you a dump or a flipper house.

Exactly the same over here. I am dang glad I bought/ moved when I did (8 years ago)! Selling price for my house has literally doubled in that time!

 

[firepit]

Indeed...paid $100K 28 years ago, over triple profit now, especially w/ our location, but would have to take out a loan for something similar; debt free the past 10 years, keeping what I got...

Same here....I got five yrs left on house and 5 1/2 yrs to full retirement and we are outta here and moving where my bro lives and real estate is cheaper.
My luck will be the housing market crashes bigtime about that time.
Whatever our house brings we will be downsizing and hitting the road health permitting.

 

[Econ]

In our area homes are still selling like hot cakes.

Have you considered selling now at the higher price and rent for a year or two and buy at the significantly lower price? Housing inventory is tight as no one can afford the payments on a new loan.

I heard the latest real estate sales spill is sure you can't afford the payment but you can refinance in a year.

The latest fraudulent unemployment report came out the first Friday of the month. The degree of deception at the BLS is getting ridiculous. The BLS, Bureau of Labour Statistics, has lost all credibility. The way it is usually done is there is the first release and the press makes a big deal over the Establishment Report if they like who is in office. Then 30 days later it is revised downward and the same 60 days later. So its normal for the main release then two revisions. This time there were revisions all across the board for 2023. The earlier reports have been revised five plus times, downward. They are now at what would have been unacceptable on a first release. The Establishment Report estimates paycheks (includes part time) Whereas the more accurate Household report counts employed people. Labour economists are now estimating 670,000 full time jobs have been traded in for 1,000,000 parttime jobs over the past 2 months but the public is none the wiser.

The BLS also calculates the GDP and accused of fraud. GDP is supposed to be equal to GDI but hasn't been for over 4 quarters. The economy as calculated by GDI would be in recession.

My fear is that this one will be one for the history books. The reason it is taking taking so long is burning off the "covid stimulus" sugar high.

And Yellen has financed half the US debt using two year treasuries that are coming due and have to be refinanced at up to 7 times higher rates.

I would not retire in the next 2 years unless forced out.

 

[Sjm9911]

I would not retire in the next 2 years

Now you tell me! Lol. House prices will be relative. Unfortunately, thier is less housing stock and more people. So, I dont see the market crashing. It may go down slightly, but I dont see it going down a ton. People have to live somewhere.

 

[Arlyn Aronson]

Again I will state, if you like to update whatever you are camping with, now is the time to be shoppuing for your camp dream.

 

[Econ]

It may go down slightly, but I dont see it going down a ton. People have to live somewhere.

Patience.

 

[Econ]

now is the time to be shoppuing for your camp dream.

Patience. We haven't seen desperation yet. It gets better.



Walmart employees 1.6 million people so you can use it as a proxy for the US labor market. They have announced that they will lower their starting wage for new hires.

Contrary to a Wall Street Journal piece a few days ago I don't think this is a case of higher wages are attracting new workers back into the labor force. It has been shown half of the "stimmy checks" during Covid was banked. I suggest that the savings has run out and that workers, especially the less skilled are being forced back into the labor force and Walmart is taking advantage of greater supply at a lower rate.

These Auto workers better wake up as they will be driving production overseas if they ask for too much.

Everybody needs to learn there is a difference in nominal wages and real wages.

 

[Econ]

So, I dont see the market crashing. It may go down slightly, but I dont see it going down a ton. People have to live somewhere.

Thought of you recently while watching a lecture on the Case-Shiller House Price Index VS CPI (Inflation). Graph started in 1947 to present. It shows historically the trend is the cost of house plus inflation on a national average.

The main point to be made. All bubbles return to the trend line.

This graph was found on FRED. Note the early 2000 bubble. Note the current bubble.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa

CPI out today for last month. Headline CPI is up .6% to 3.6651 and core CPI up to 4.3492. Fuel driving Headline CPI, up 9%. Fed likes Core as it is minus food and energy.